The SNP, Scotland And The Ireland Scenario

Has the British Prime Minster David Cameron hit the self-destruct button on the so-called United Kingdom?

The legalistic diktats from the British government in relation to the referendum on Scottish independence seem to have fallen apart at their first airing and the Tories (and their gormless Lib-Dem allies) look to have gone into reverse gear double-quick. From the Irish Times:

“THE SCOTTISH National Party said yesterday the attempt by British prime minister David Cameron to set a quick deadline for a Scottish independence referendum would bolster support for a breakup of the union.

The SNP had promised to hold a referendum later in the life of the Scottish parliament, possibly 2014, but the British government believes a speedy vote, offering a choice between independence and the status quo, would be lost.

However, Mr Cameron’s campaign to push for a binding 2013 referendum risks increasing support for the campaign led by the SNP, which has majority control in Holyrood, particularly if Scottish voters interpret his move as interference from London.

Even Scottish Labour, which supports the continuation of the union, though with the devolution of more powers to Edinburgh, and also wants a speedy referendum, believes Mr Cameron’s intervention could backfire.

Up to now the SNP has favoured a 2014 referendum, and has rejected charges that it is seeking to exploit nationalist fervour on the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, the biggest ever victory over the English.

Equally, it has favoured putting a three-part question to voters on whether Scotland should be independent, or stay in the UK,  or whether it should opt for the so-called “devo max”, where control over full tax powers and other issues would be ceded to Edinburgh.”

Both the Left and Right in Britain’s media establishment oppose the Scottish move towards independence, as do of course the British political classes, and a nasty campaign of vilification and misinformation against Alex Salmond and the SNP is already well in place. However every move of the British Nationalist caucus (or perhaps we should say, the caucus of Greater England Nationalists) seems to make matters only worse for their cause. Hence the attempts of the London-based government to gerrymander the democratic processes in Scotland to a more favourable position.

So the question is now this:  what if the Scots are denied a referendum (or the referendum they want in the circumstances they want)?

In this situation what’s to prevent Alex Salmond from calling an early Holyrood election, strengthening the electoral vote of the SNP on a wave of anti-Westminster sentiment, and returning to the Scottish parliament with a mandate to implement a version of the “Ireland scenario”.

For those of you who are unaware of what that means, in 1918 the Irish republican party of Sinn Féin gained an electoral landslide across the island of Ireland in the general election of December that year, with 80% of the total vote. In January of 1919 the party gathered together at the Mansion House in Dublin as Dáil Éireann, the “Assembly of Ireland” or the new parliament for the people of the island of Ireland. On January 21st the Dáil voted for and issued the Irish Declaration of Independence, recognising and mandating the Irish Republic proclaimed in the Easter Rising of 1916, three years previously.

Through the mechanism of a general election and unanimously-backed motion in the new Irish parliament or Dáil, Ireland was formally established as an independent sovereign nation state (though ultimately, of course, a minority of the Irish people were forcibly torn from the nation by the terrorism and violence of the British separatist minority on the island and their British sponsors).

So, the political precedent in the history of the “United Kingdom” for a move to independence through an electoral mandate is clearly there (even if the British refuse to accept it). In the event of a future SNP election landslide in Scotland one wonders if a motion could be brought forward in the Scottish parliament by a new SNP administration declaring independence for the country on a simple majority vote of Scottish MSPs? And if so who could gainsay it?

Well, of course, many British nationalists could, as would their government and press. But how far would that rejection go? Could we really imagine British troops on the streets of Edinburgh? The mass arrest of SNP politicians and MSPs? Alex Salmond in the Tower of London? Unlikely to say the least.

It’s a high-stakes game but one where it may be necessary in the future for the Scottish Government to call the British Government’s bluff.

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5 Responses to “The SNP, Scotland And The Ireland Scenario”
  1. At the present moment in time it really is impossible to say how it will all pan out.
    At I guess, I would see the Referendum taking place in 2014 or 2016. I very much doubt 2015, the next British election is scheduled for then.
    So either 2014 and all its historical significance, the Commonwealth games and the Ryder Cup in Scotland, or 2016 after a new British Government is elected in 2015. At present that looks like a Conservative one or another Coalition with the LibDems., unless Labour somehow get electable again? The British economy is Broke, the conservatives are doing what they always do,hitting the poor! Another Conservative Government at that stage would be the Final Straw for Scots.
    I also think that things are really going to go into meltdown after 2013, otherwise why the panic and desperation by the Conservatives to impose an 18month deadline?
    The only way UDI will happen is if the Scots are denied having their own referendum, or its result being denied.
    Its the end game for the Union,whatever happens, and they know it!
    The question I have in mind, is what will be the knock on effects on England, Wales, Northern Ireland? I suspect that it will be seismic when Scotland leaves.

  2. daibhidhdeux says:

    As “auld acquaintance” says, we cannot predict outcomes beyond the current shambles – economic and busted flush of the “union” in terms of its “democratic ‘legitimacy'”: ha ha – but, almost certainly, a neo-Thatcherite/neo-Con reprise scenario(s) imposed by the anglo-state (and their comprador elements) on Scotland would – if you are a betting (wo)man – be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of popular opinion in “Jocklandshire”.

    I suspect a Dail re-run a la currently updated state of current events state of play due to provocations by the current crop of aspic anglo-state unionists and their sympathizers from this part of the Celtic-internationalist fringe, and their bovine inability to learn any lesson from history (either from the unravelling of their empire or from others – we Scotch, the Taffies, and the Norn Iron Paddies what’er their “tribal” proclivities be damned – being their last bitty piece of their global Lebensraum and excuse for planking their bahookies at the top tables of international “moving and shaking”.

    That they will surrender such baubles and sources of income and cannon fodder for their Greek imperialist adventures to the rhythmic stomp of Yanqui-Roman hob-nailed sandals and battering of stabbing swords on imperial shields seems, on past form, unlikely.

    If Iraq and Afganistan – pace Ireland and other ex-Brit colonial etcetera – were a piece of illegal cake (and let us not forget Kenyan and Adenese atrocities), anglo troops and revamped Black and Tans – drawn from the contemporary gutter and thugging about Alba – would not surprise me since their is copious if silenced historical evidence of similar, literal, gunboat, marine expeditionary forces, and other military and para-military interventions here (see MacLean, John; Connolly, James; Grigor, Iain Fraser; and sundry other sources).

    Does oor ain version of de Valera smell the rat of history repeating itself this time on Scottish fraternal soil rather than Irish fraternal loam?

    I suspect he full well does; for like our French and Breton brethren, he is au fait with the anglo-elites (and their anglicized hanger-ons) manifestly on the historical record tendency towards duplicity and sociopathy (as witnessed in microcosm in current attack dog vitriol by their Brit-nat

  3. daibhidhdeux says:

    As “auld acquaintance” says, we cannot predict outcomes beyond the current shambles – economic and busted flush of the “union” in terms of its “democratic ‘legitimacy'”: ha ha – but, almost certainly, a neo-Thatcherite/neo-Con reprise scenario(s) imposed by the anglo-state (and their comprador elements) on Scotland would – if you are a betting (wo)man – be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of popular opinion in “Jocklandshire”.

    I suspect a Dail re-run a la currently updated state of current events state of play due to provocations by the current crop of aspic anglo-state unionists and their sympathizers from this part of the Celtic-internationalist fringe, and their bovine inability to learn any lesson from history (either from the unravelling of their empire or from others – we Scotch, the Taffies, and the Norn Iron Paddies what’er their “tribal” proclivities be damned – being their last bitty piece of their global Lebensraum and excuse for planking their bahookies at the top tables of international “moving and shaking”.

    That they will surrender such baubles and sources of income and cannon fodder for their Greek imperialist adventures to the rhythmic stomp of Yanqui-Roman hob-nailed sandals and battering of stabbing swords on imperial shields seems, on past form, unlikely.

    If Iraq and Afganistan – pace Ireland and other ex-Brit colonial etcetera – were a piece of illegal cake (and let us not forget Kenyan and Adenese atrocities), anglo troops and revamped Black and Tans – drawn from the contemporary gutter and thugging about Alba – would not surprise me since their is copious if silenced historical evidence of similar, literal, gunboat, marine expeditionary forces, and other military and para-military interventions here (see MacLean, John; Connolly, James; Grigor, Iain Fraser; and sundry other sources).

    Does oor ain version of de Valera smell the rat of history repeating itself this time on Scottish fraternal soil rather than Irish fraternal loam?

    I suspect he full well does; for like our French and Breton brethren, he is au fait with the anglo-elites (and their anglicized hanger-ons) manifestly on the historical record tendency towards duplicity and sociopathy (as witnessed in microcosm in current attack dog vitriol by their Brit-nat, blogger attack dogs, and, marginally less so, by their MSM apologists of whom, primus

  4. It seems Salmond has called all their bluffs with the 2014 date (as many predicted). It remains to be seen now exactly how the referendum will be held, who will be eligible and what the question(s) will be.

    I would not rule out the UDI option given enough reason to do so, though at the moment it remains very much an outside option. And a last option at that.

    Thanks for the Comments.

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  1. [...] those with some historical perspective have noticed some Celtic parrallels. An Sionnach Fionn writes (The SNP, Scotland and the Ireland Scenario): ‘Has the British Prime Minster David [...]



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