An Sionnach Fionn

Éire Ghaelach – Éire Shaor

Latest Poll: 51% Favour Scottish Independence

According to a Sunday Express poll 51% of the voters in Scotland now support independence, the first time this percentage has been reached in a survey conducted on behalf of a national newspaper in the UK.

“A CLEAR majority of people in Scotland now back independence, according to an exclusive poll for the Sunday Express.

In the first such result since the SNP came to power – and using Alex Salmond’s preferred referendum question – the Vision Critical survey found 51 per cent would vote ‘Yes’, with 39 per cent against.

If such a dramatic result were repeated in the autumn of 2014, the First Minister would have an absolute mandate to negotiate an end to the Union with England.

Carried out on Thursday and Friday, the poll is the first to use the exact wording of the question proposed by the Scottish Government…”

However there is a caveat:

“The survey canvassed 2,019 adults, including 180 people in Scotland…”

180 voters seems a very small sample, in statistical terms, yet:

“Despite the relatively small numbers north of the Border, the pollsters said the result was valid as they had sampled a representative cross section of society.”

Even allowing for caution, the survey is clearly indicative of the rising numbers in Scotland for the independence option. The recent New Statesman poll showed 44% of voters favouring independence while previous surveys have chartered a steady growth in the nationalist vote from around the 29% mark to averages of 34 or 35%.

3 comments on “Latest Poll: 51% Favour Scottish Independence

  1. auldacquaintance
    January 30, 2012

    Taking all the 3 most recent sub polls together, combined sample would 1000 and the average of the 3 would be 47%
    It is all academic at the moment, but the trend is steadily rising in the Nationalists favour and the support for the Status Quo rapidly decreasing. And we are still over 2 years to go yet. It could well be a landslide by the time late 2014 comes around.

    • Excellent article over on Slugger O’Toole looking at this. Well worth a read, and it discusses the point I made about using a PR-style referendum, with a 1,2,3 form of preferential voting. I will have to post a link on the blog.

  2. Pingback: Scottish Independence? I’d Blame that Berlusconi Chap! « The Bankside Babble

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