Current Affairs Politics

Scottish Referendum Poll Shows Yes Vote Gaining Ground

Alba Gu Brath - Scotland Forever. Thousands attend Scottish independence rally, Edinbugh, Scotland, 2012 (Photo: Wings Over Scotland)
Alba Gu Brath – Scotland Forever. Thousands attend Scottish independence rally, Edinbugh, Scotland, 2012 (Photo: Wings Over Scotland)

The latest TNS BMRB poll in Scotland is showing a small if significant rise in support for the pro-sovereignty Yes side in the run-up to the September referendum on Scottish independence. When “undecideds” are stripped out the anti-sovereignty No vote has dropped to 56% while the Yes vote has increased to 44%, a 3% jump since the last poll in June. In part the rise in support for the SNP-led proposition is the growing popularity of independence amongst British Labour Party supporters in Scotland despite the party’s fierce opposition to constitutional progress. The latest poll is being interpreted as a sign that voters are now firming up in their preferred choices on the referendum question.

12 comments on “Scottish Referendum Poll Shows Yes Vote Gaining Ground

  1. Was travelling in the West of Scotland a few weeks ago and felt an incredible sense of it being ‘my’ country – place names and stems of words in place names are all ‘ours’ as well – I think there has been a concerted effort to bilingualise the signposts. I only spoke to about 4 people and all mentioned a connection to Ireland and in my sample poll on independence, admittedly quite small (ie 1) there was 100% support. Of course it is a former colony of ours – but their post-colonial attitudes are very positive towards us.

    Although I’m not in favour of a new Act of Union – I’m not averse to having a very close relationship with Scotland in the still unlikely event of a yes vote.

    Tactically I think the referendum was mistake(if they lose) as it is too early and I cant help thinking Alex’s position should have been that he would have a referendum if the English(in a UK vote) voted to leave the EU – which he could win in those circumstances – this would have made Alex look like Captain Sensible and Davey Cameron as a mad dog Tory who was not only in favour of leaving the EU but also breaking up the Union,

    Gwan Alex ye boy ye.

    Like

    • Your experience echoes my own. Scotland is, to borrow a phrase, the “near abroad”.

      I certainly wouldn’t be adverse to a Gaelic (or Celtic) union on Scandinavian lines. Quite the contrary.

      Remember the words of Roibeard Brús (Robert the Bruce) to the Irish in 1315:

      “To all the kings of Ireland, the prelates and clergy and to the inhabitants of Ireland, our friends.

      Whereas we and you and our people and your people, free since ancient times, share the same national ancestry and are urged to come together more eagerly and joyfully in friendship by a common language and by common custom, we have sent you our beloved kinsman, the bearers of this letter, to negotiate with you in our name about permanently strengthening and maintaining inviolate the special friendship between us and you, so that with God’s will our nation [Ireland and Scotland] may be able to recover her ancient liberty.”

      I suspect you are right about an EU exit vote by the British (English) pushing the sovereigntist vote north of the border into majority territory. The timing may be off this one around but it may come to pass yet. To paraphrase that famous line, Nationalists only have to be lucky once; Unionists have to be lucky every time 😉

      Like

  2. Scotland and ireland as very close allies or unified in some way, a fantastic idea. 🙂 I hope the vote in September is for independence, though if it isn’t that’s just more cause to make greater efforts for next time. A world without imperialism, I wish it were so.

    Like

    • UK, unlike Russia is not a failed state.
      That’s why it’s likely that the independence referendum will fail.

      Like

  3. I’ve heard many times that the Irish are not considered foreigners in the UK and the British are not considered foreigners in Ireland.
    Do you agree with that Séamas?

    Like

  4. The polls seem to be all over the place, large differences between polls taken just days apart, huge variation in the proportions of ‘don’t knows’ etc. See here :

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1#line

    Not wildly encouraging, I admit, but then given the incessant barrage of negativity from Westminster, most of the media etc., probably no surprise. Still we can but hope the pollsters are out of their depth here, with e.g. many ‘non-voters’ likely to turn out, suggestions from those on the ground that the polls are wrong, or even biased (perish the thought!)

    Anyway although in a sense it’s ‘none of your business’, nevertheless a bit of encouragement from the neighbours is always a great moral booster. This from the Welsh …

    If nothing else it helps to counter the suggestion that Scotland going it alone and leaving the rest of the UK to stew in its own juice would somehow be selfish and anti-progressive.

    Ireland ???

    Like

    • Other side can make emotional messages too:

      Independence supporters should explain many practical things more clearly.

      For example – it’s less than 3 months till referendum and we still don’t know what currency Scotland is going to use in case of independence,

      Like

      • I’m not going to get into these arguments here as they’ve already been fully answered many times elsewhere. BT’s tactic is to make some off-the-wall scare statement that gets splashed all over the press, only to be proved wrong and often withdrawn a day or two later. However people remember the headlines and often miss the later retraction. The UK is massively in debt and would need an independent Scotland to take a share of the debt (which it need not) also it needs the £££’s earned by Scotland’s exports, oil but also whisky, food, tourism etc., to prevent a balance of payments crisis. This means that the English would have to be insane to refuse a currency union, but if that’s their choice well fuck them! Scotland is being co-operative and offering to do them a favour, an offer they really cannot refuse. The rest is all posturing and propaganda.

        By the way, don’t expect any help from us when the Russian tanks come back to Rīga …

        Like

        • This is what I’m talking about Marconatrix.

          I do agree that currency union is a sensible option.
          But the Scottish can’t really DEMAND that from the rest of the UK.

          That’s why independence supporters should offer a solid plan B – whether it’s a Scottish pound, unilateral use of GBP or Euro or some other option.

          I don’t see anything like that currently unfortunately.

          Like

          • Sorry for my final remark, I misunderstood your position.

            The SNP has set out it’s negotiating position regarding currency (amongst other things). It would be nice if Westminster would start discussing contingency plans in case of a ‘yes’ vote, that would seem to be a very sensible thing to do, but the fact is they refuse to accept the fact that this might happen, and as Cameron puts it, “to prenegotiate the separation”. Since the other side won’t budge, neither can the Scots. It would be foolish to start making any kind of concessions unilaterally.

            No the English can’t insist. They can’t insist on having Scottish exports contribute to the UK’s shaky balance of payments, or on Scotland taking some of their massive debts. Scotland might even press the argument internationally that England has no more right than Scotland to be seen as the ‘continuing state’, that both revert to their status before the Union so that Great Britain ceases to be. The case is debatable, but would England dare to risk losing it’s seat on the UN Security Council, it’s right to have nukes, it’s seat on international bodies (apart from the EU perhaps?) and so on? Despite their bluster, the government are probably well aware of this possibility, otherwise they’d never have signed the Edinburgh Agreement to abide by the results of the referendum and facilitate an orderly transition.

            Well, not long to go now …

            Like

      • Graham Ennis

        Why are they holding up this strange sign that says: “To Get Her”?

        Like

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: