I must admit that I remain quite sceptical about the anti-SNP hysteria convulsing significant chunks of the UK press as they continue to promulgate claims that Nicola Sturgeon’s party will soon crush all before it as Britain’s general election looms, banishing the mainstream British Unionist parties from Scotland for ever and a day – or at least from representing the Scottish constituencies in Westminster for the next five years or so. Most of the more dire predictions are stemming from the crazier fringes of the Britnat cause, though even David Cameron and Ed Miliband are finding it necessary to assuage the supremacist passions of Greater England in the pursuit of votes south of the border. However with consistent polling pointing to an SNP surge on the historic levels of the Sinn Féin tide that swept through a majority of constituencies on the island of Ireland in the general elections of 1918 and ’21 (not to mention the local elections of 1920), you have to wonder.
Which brings me to the latest STV survey which must surely fall into the too-good-to-be-true category. Mustn’t it?
“The SNP is on course to take every seat in Scotland at the general election, according to the latest STV News poll.
A survey on voter intention showed 54% are set to back Nicola Sturgeon’s party on May 7, up two points since January.
Based on the findings of the latest poll conducted by Ipsos-MORI , the Electoral Calculus website suggests that the SNP could win all 59 Scottish seats up for grabs. Other electoral calculators project Labour and the Liberal Democrats saving one seat each.
The SNP has increased their lead over Labour to 34 points in the survey. Jim Murphy’s party could face electoral wipeout north of the border, with their vote down four points to only 20%.
The Conservatives have increased their share by five points to 17% in the survey.
Support for the Liberal Democrats has increased one point to 5% and the Green Party is down two percentage points at 2%. UKIP polls at one percent with support for other parties also at one percent.
The poll found 80% of the Scottish electorate are certain to vote, five points down on the turnout at the referendum on Scottish independence last September and 16 points up on the percentage of Scots that voted in the last general election in 2010 (64%).”
If the polling is even remotely accurate it seems that for Scotland the year 2015 will be to 2014 what 1918 was to 1916 for Ireland. Though hopefully this time the British will respect the democratic wishes of the majority and not resort to violence and the threat of violence to thwart them.