Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond adresses independence rally, Edinburgh, Scotland, 2012 (Photo: Wings Over Scotland)

Polls Predict 2015 SNP Landslide In Scotland

Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond adresses independence rally, Edinburgh, Scotland, 2012 (Photo: Wings Over Scotland)
Scotland’s former First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond addresses an independence rally, Edinburgh, Scotland, 2012 (Photo: Wings Over Scotland)

I must admit that I remain quite sceptical about the anti-SNP hysteria convulsing significant chunks of the UK press as they continue to promulgate claims that Nicola Sturgeon’s party will soon crush all before it as Britain’s general election looms, banishing the mainstream British Unionist parties from Scotland for ever and a day – or at least from representing the Scottish constituencies in Westminster for the next five years or so. Most of the more dire predictions are stemming from the crazier fringes of the Britnat cause, though even David Cameron and Ed Miliband are finding it necessary to assuage the supremacist passions of Greater England in the pursuit of votes south of the border. However with consistent polling pointing to an SNP surge on the historic levels of the Sinn Féin tide that swept through a majority of constituencies on the island of Ireland in the general elections of 1918 and ’21 (not to mention the local elections of 1920), you have to wonder.

Which brings me to the latest STV survey which must surely fall into the too-good-to-be-true category. Mustn’t it?

“The SNP is on course to take every seat in Scotland at the general election, according to the latest STV News poll.

A survey on voter intention showed 54% are set to back Nicola Sturgeon’s party on May 7, up two points since January.

Based on the findings of the latest poll conducted by Ipsos-MORI , the Electoral Calculus website suggests that the SNP could win all 59 Scottish seats up for grabs. Other electoral calculators project Labour and the Liberal Democrats saving one seat each.

The SNP has increased their lead over Labour to 34 points in the survey. Jim Murphy’s party could face electoral wipeout north of the border, with their vote down four points to only 20%.

The Conservatives have increased their share by five points to 17% in the survey.

Support for the Liberal Democrats has increased one point to 5% and the Green Party is down two percentage points at 2%. UKIP polls at one percent with support for other parties also at one percent.

The poll found 80% of the Scottish electorate are certain to vote, five points down on the turnout at the referendum on Scottish independence last September and 16 points up on the percentage of Scots that voted in the last general election in 2010 (64%).”

If the polling is even remotely accurate it seems that for Scotland the year 2015 will be to 2014 what 1918 was to 1916 for Ireland. Though hopefully this time the British will respect the democratic wishes of the majority and not resort to violence and the threat of violence to thwart them.

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15 comments

  1. There were two catalysts for the change in scotland, 1. The referendum and the lies that were told and 2, Alex Salmond stepping down for Nicola Sturgeon, Adams needs to step down gracefully and a referendum needs to be called if a similar revolution in the north of Ireland is to occur.

    1. I agree with that, BD. Any referendum on reunification would need Mary Lou or Pearse at the head of SF. 2018 or 2019 would be a good point to aim for, once Adams has had his 2016 moment.

      I have to say the power-team of Sturgeon-Salmond looks like it will have the ability and flexibility to out-fox all of the Unionist shenanigans at Westminster and Downing Street. This is one UK general election I will be staying up all night for 😀

      1. Funnily enough, I mentioned those two names in a conversation elsewhere today on the same subject, as for the DUP, I have seldom seen such a self destructive campaign


      2. Only ~20-30% support the reunification – that referendum will be even greater failure than the Scottish one.

        1. Jānis, with the support of SF and the SDLP, and maybe some national parties or individual TDanna, I would expect the Yes vote for a reunited Ireland to be 40%+. Certainly enough to continue the instability of “Northern Ireland” and push the slow reintegration with the rest of the country.

          1. Voting for SF and supporting reunification are two different things.
            It’s perfectly possible to not like idiots like Campbell, but at the same time want to keep the money that the UK is paying every year.
            And as I said before – the Republic of Ireland doesn’t have the money to support NI.
            And many jobs depend on that money.

            Also there isn’t much difference for Irish speakers because both the UK and Ireland force people to speak English.

  2. I wouldn’t be losing sleep over it to be honest.
    Scottish Nationalists will vote SNP. Non-“soft” Northern Unionists will vote DUP.
    Who can be bothered to turn up and vote will be much more important than any campaign these parties will run.

  3. Although the papers have been talking about an SNP ‘surge’ for months, in fact there was a rapid change straight after the referendum followed by a steady state with the SNP averaging somewhere in the mid to high 40’s and Labour around the middle of the 20’s. Conservatives have been stuck around 17% throughout and the LibDems and minor parties take the remaining 10-15%.

    Since individuals polls varied quite a lot I’ve been taking a running average of the latest five polls which has been pretty steady, just a few % wobble. Initially the only possible trend (doubtful at that) was a very small rise in Labour and a slight fall in the SNP. Even so the SNP would still be expected to easily get well over half of the Westminster seats, and most likely leave Labour with no more than a dozen (and LibDems with 1 or 2 at best.

    However in the past few days there seems to have been a clear rise in the SNP average and a similar fall in Labour, bringing the SNP up to 50% or just over, and Labour down to 25% or less. This would give the SNP all but about 4 of the 59 Scottish seats. This really is a surge (Sturgeon surge on?) and if it keeps up over the remaining week then the sky’s the limit. Either way with Lab and Con evenly balanced in the rest of the UK it seems pretty certain that the SNP and the SNP alone would hold the balance of power. And the really don’t like it up ‘um.

    My only fear are the lengths to which Westminster establishment might go to protect the status quo. They are desperate now as post-referendum their propaganda no longer works. So hang on to your hats, tinfoil or otherwise. Interesting Times 😉

    1. Marconatrix, agree with all that. I wonder though, with all the hype, have expectations been raised too high (and perhaps deliberately so)? Six months ago if the SNP had 30 MPs it would be seen as a stunning success. Now it would be presented in some Unionist quarters as the SNP failing to exploit popular feelings in Scotland. I wonder are the polls being exaggerated so that when Labour and the Lib-Dems hold more seats than expected they can claim some sort of pyrrhic victory?

      Or am I just too cynical for words? 😉

      1. I’d love to see every seat go to the SNP, simply because of the psychological effect that would have. However in terms of parliamentary arithmetic, of the SNP holding the balance of power it doesn’t really matter. Even with the polls as they were over the winter, leaving Labour with a dozen or so Scottish seats, the SNP would still most probably hold the balance of power. It would take a major change in English voting patterns to alter that, and Labour and Tory have been within a few seats of each other all along.

        What can they do in the few days left? Crash a plane into the middle of Glasgow? Assassinate Nicola? Invade Argentina? Maybe they will try something complete off the wall, who knows?

        However hopefully all the old Yes people will remember that horrid sickening feeling when they lost the referendum, (or was it stolen?) and do their damnedest to avoid a repeat. The SNP has perhaps ten times the number of activists of their rivals, so that should at least be enough to get the vote out on the day, and to watch every ballot box like a hawk.

        Well, might as well enjoy my optimism while I can — LOL!

        Is seachdainn ùine fhada ann an saoghal poileataiceach.

    2. to be quite honest – a Lab/Con national coalition is on the cards to “save the Union”, of course – Both parties will have the majority of votes in England (biggest population in the UK), neither has ruled it out, policies are quite similar, the idea is being mooted in places that count. We’ll see what transpires

      1. What would transpire would be either Scottish withdrawal from the Union, with or without another referendum, or the break-up of Labour, since there are still some genuine socialists within the party who would opt to vote with an SNP inspired Progressive Alliance rather that backing the Tories. Indeed this is probably the scenario that Labour fears most. One way or another major political and constitutional changes look likely, all well overdue.

        Whether any of this would spill over to Ireland is something I’ll have to leave to the rest of you to discuss.

        1. With the DUP desperate for power and influence through some sort of deal with the Tories, or Labour as the second option, it will definitely spill over if that happens. SF may well see the benefits of that in the Irish general election next year and the northern assembly elections. There would certainly be a Nationalist kickback at the sight of the Dupes walking in and out of Downing Street.

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