Big Drop For Fianna Fáil And Slight Rise For Sinn Féin In Latest Poll

While taking due note of the significant margin of error in the latest Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll there are still some things of interest in the results. Fianna Fáil has recorded a hefty drop of seven points since the last survey in July to 26% while Fine Gael has crept up by only two points to 26%. Sinn Féin’s support has gone up by three points (just outside the MOE) but the Labour Party continues to founder in the electoral doldrums with no movement at all either way. If the staff canteens of Trinity College, UCD, RTÉ and the Irish Times were obliterated by meteorites there’d be hardly a Labour voter left in the country! 😉 The full breakdown is as follows:

26% = Fianna Fáil

26% = Fine Gael

19% = Sinn Féin

5% = Labour

3% = Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit

3% = Green Party

2% = Social Democrats 2%,

-1% = Renua

15% = Independents

Psephologist Adrian Kavanagh has analysed all of the above and suggests the following numbers in An Dáil should a future general election yield similar percentages:

48 = Fianna Fáil

48 = Fine Gael

31 = Sinn Féin

3 = Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit

3 = Green Party

2 = Social Democrats

2 = Labour Party

22 = Independents

Aside from Sinn Féin I can’t see anyone being overly enthused by those returns, even accounting for errors. Though SF will be well aware that thirty-one TDanna would be at the extreme edge of possible seat gains. Twenty-six or twenty-seven deputies is a more likely achievement unless the negative effects of Brexit are far beyond anything predicted so far or some scandal of epic proportions envelops Fianna Fáil come polling day. So the minority government of Fine Gael and co. will be in place for a wee while longer.

 

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