Latest LucidTalk – Belfast Telegraph Assembly Poll. Is The DUP In Trouble?

Like many other observers I’m somewhat sceptical about the validity of election polling in the north-east of the country. Despite nearly two decades of relative peace, people in the UK-administered Six Counties are generally reluctant to give honest answers to political questions. Furthermore, the main survey company, LucidTalk, has been the subject of some criticism in the past for its methodologies. Bearing these caveats in mind, plus a hefty margin of error in the results, here are the headline figures from the latest poll commissioned by the pro-union Belfast Telegraph newspaper.

For the March 2nd Stormont election which political party are you currently planning to vote for as a first preference?

  • 25.8% (-3.3%) DUP
  • 25.1% (+1.1%) SF
  • 13.9% (+1.3%) UUP
  • 12.3% (+0.4%) SDLP
  • 8.8% (+1.9%) APNI
  • 4.2% (+0.9%) TUV
  • 3.8% (+1.2%) GP
  • 2.7% (+0.7%) PBP
  • 1.1% (-0.3%) UKIP
  • 0.77% (-0.1%) PUP

Aside from the percentages for the DUP, the above figures are all within the 3%+/- margin of error and so of debatable significance.

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