Tory-DUP Deal In London Makes Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin Coalition More Likely In Dublin

Irish and British political commentators are already warning of unintended consequences stemming from the backdoor-coalition deal between the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom and the Democratic Unionist Party in the UK-administered north-east of Ireland. These will almost certainly include a hardening of opinion among the northern nationalist community and its southern fraternity, strengthening growing demands for a referendum on reunification in the face of Britain’s expected crash-and-burn exit from the European Union. The combined hubris and inept politics of Theresa May and Arlene Foster are accelerating a final end to Greater England’s legacy colony on this island nation, and sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, I wonder do the Tories and the Dupes realise that their underhand actions in London have made a future Sinn Féin coalition agreement in Dublin all the more palatable to Irish voters, and by extension to establishment parties like Fianna Fáil? With the hibernophobic DUP pulling the strings of the Conservatives, and the UK taking on the perceived role of a political and economic “hostile actor” towards Ireland and the wider EU, voters in this country might well choose to make their Brexit-born insecurity and anger known through the ballot box. And the beneficiaries of that sentiment will be a party the far right British unionists hate and fear the most.

Welcome to Empire 2.0!

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14 comments

  1. Be interesting to see how the DUP come down on where the Brexit border ends up. I cannot see them being up to the ego hit of making the Irish Sea the border to keep the soft Unionists on side. Foster’s position would have to be secure or dramatically improved with this result and I do not get a read on her that such a compromise is on the cards.

    Now they are in govt they are about to be put under public scrutiny. This is already turning out not to be good for either Tory or DUP. DUP would have been much smarter to provide a supply & confidence arrangement, it may not have guaranteed avoiding the spotlight but it would have been a chance of it.

    1. They aren’t in Government yet and with the amount of petitions flying around it may never happen. It is a massive wake up call in the UK for those who have no idea of the workings of NI politics nor the players. Theresa May has opened up a can of worms that may yet devour her and her party. This could be the beginning of the end of NI being an appendage to the UK and an opportunity of reunification.

      1. The negotiations are going poorly at the moment but I’d expect them to come together in the end. The Tories won’t call the DUP bluff unless the Dupes go too far with their shopping list. Its mostly cash, and lots of it, for investment in unionist-voting constituencies in the Six Counties. The hardcore stuff, Orange Parades and screwing over Sinn Féin, is secondary for the time being. But that won’t last. It’s June and soon it will be July and then things will get interesting.

    2. My gut instinct is a Six Counties’ border, and a pretty hard one, with the British carrying the can for the failure to avoid it. At least as far as the EU will be concerned. Dublin is another matter. Varadkar hardly inspires much confidence in his green credentials given some recent statements and actions.

  2. Micheal Martin is unusually anti-Republican for a Fianna Fail leader. He’s very close to the Sunday Indo/”Irish” Daily Mail cabal, when it comes to Anglo-Irish relations – a position completey at odds with the grassroots of the party.

    1. How do we know this? I don’t hold an opposing view but nothing I can recall that he has done or said would lead you to call him anti-Republican.

      1. Well he relentlessly attacks Sinn Fein over IRA violence, and does so in a way, that in my view implies that the Irish republicans were the only culpably violent party in the northern conflict. I’m not suggesting that Sinn Fein should be immune from criticism, but the way Martin does it is very close to the Sunday Indo line. There’s a wider issue here of the guilt-tripping not just of Irish republicans, but of the Irish nation generally. The British people are never exhorted to feel guilt over the actions of British terrorist groups such as the UVF and the UDA, and never were, so regardless of how one views the armed struggle, there is no reason for those who vote for Sinn Fein to be constantly emotionally battered over the IRA’s past actions. Either we’ve moved on or we haven’t. Plus, of course Fianna Fail itself is a party born out of armed struggle.

  3. As Lenin said: “For decades, nothing happens politically, then in a single year, decades happen”.
    (He also said: “The worse, the better”. ) I sense future events of Titanic proportions……(What was the name of that ocean liner built in Belfast?)

  4. demanding a border poll when you can’t win it isn’t much of a card to play.

    What are SF going to do in a 26 county government on the north

    in any situation you can

    support
    oppose
    ignore

    The 26 county state is weak in comparison to britain because of that weakness it tends to be option 1 or option 3.

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