A Pro-Choice Landslide Predicted In Ireland’s Abortion Referendum

Given the reputation of Irish exit polling, the results below may well be the cause of good cheer for the pro-choice or Yes campaign come the actual counting of votes in the morning. From RTÉ:

An RTÉ exit poll on the referendum on the Eighth Amendment has projected a Yes vote of 69.4% with a No vote of 30.6%.

The sample size was 3,800 with a margin of error of +/- 1.6%.

The exit poll was conducted by RTÉ in conjunction with a number of Irish universities and was carried out by Behaviour & Attitudes.

From the Irish Times:

Ireland has voted by a landslide margin to change the constitution so that abortion can be legalised, according to an exit poll conducted for The Irish Times by Ipsos/MRBI.

The poll suggests that the margin of victory for the Yes side in the referendum will be 68 per cent to 32 per cent – a stunning victory for the Yes side…

However, we must remember that repealing the Eight Amendment of Bunreacht na hÉireann is just the first step in a still difficult journey. The next challenge will focus on the substance of the proposed abortion legislation itself, with the parties in the Oireachtas far from united on the subject. That said, with a democratic mandate like this, the gainsayers will be on the backfoot for quite some time.




  1. I’ve given this a ‘like’ since I’m in favour of women’s rights and generally a liberal/radical type … but it has occurred to me that had abortion been easily and legally available at the time and place of my conception, there’s a very good chance that I simply wouldn’t exist. So have I just consigned myself to oblivion?

    1. Maybe so. But then maybe you wouldn’t have been confined to oblivion. I’m in a similar situation myself, an unexpected and – at least initially – unwanted out-of-wedlock pregnancy. If abortion was around then I might not be here now. But then I’m sure my mother would have gone on to have other children at some stage. Should I contemplate their non-existence, blocked by her decision to have me? I think that takes us into all sorts of existential stuff! 😉

  2. Interesting to see both the turnout and the margin of victory increasing from the SSM referendum.

    Also interesting the polls before the referendum compared to the exit polls – that despite what people told the polls before the referendum most had made their minds up before the campaign had begun and few were influenced by anything during the campaign. I think this is the same phenomena we see in CNR voters in the north telling pollsters they don’t have an opinion on a border poll, won’t vote or will vote for the Union. For me it is very hard to reconcile CNR Unionists voting for SF/SDLP and have long believed that the polls we see in the north are skewed by Unionist pollsters and/or CNRs concerned about the risk of telling a stranger that they support a UI considering how that position was a potential death sentence or career ender in the past.

    Over all a fantastic result, and great to see the change 35 years brings. Next up is getting the church out of running schools.

      1. Jaysus, they got the ball rolling on that rapid, wha? Baptism barrier gone, now onto getting religion out of it entirely.

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