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Theresa May’s Brexit Draft Deal: The Reality Of Post-Brexit Relations In Europe

By any measure the recently published “Draft Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and
the European Atomic Energy Community” is an extraordinary document. Running to 585 pages, plus related declarations and briefing notes, it symbolises the UK’s practical acknowledgement of its inferior political and economic relationship with the EU, and the latter’s willingness to soothe that recognition with surprising generosity. A better Brexit deal for both parties is hard to imagine. Though arguably any final treaty based upon the proposals will leave the British in much the same position with their former European partners as they enjoy now. A sort of Norway-Plus/Regulation-Plus model.

Oslo’s trade arrangements with Brussels seem a particularly appropriate comparison to make here since they take the form of a permanent bilateral deal. Despite claims to the contrary, there is every expectation that the suggested settlement with London will eventually become an open-ended one for the EU, extending beyond the previously agreed end of the transition period in 2020. Of course, that very much depends on how one interprets some of the complex legalese in the text, including a few ambiguous phrases on European regulatory rules and their applicability in the United Kingdom as a whole or by the United Kingdom to the north-east of Ireland alone. With both sides apparently ready to commit to a treaty from which neither can reasonably withdraw without the other’s agreement, and with distinctly European institutions providing arbitration over such questions, Britain seems reconciled to a permanent post-exit association with or shadow membership of the EU. Which begs the obvious question. Why are the British exiting in the first place, then?

Of course, that realisation readily explains last week’s predictable ministerial resignations in the UK as Prime Minister Theresa May desperately tried to polish her Brexit turd into a Brexit jewel. Unfortunately no amount of rubbing could remove the stink of compromise in the noses of the Brexiteer ultras as they left a stormy meeting in Downing Street, complaining of olfactory outrage as they went. With the principled Leavers off the scene, the unprincipled Leavers have come to the fore, ready to position themselves for an opportunity to make a play for the premiership if the Conservative Party leader falls (as many informed observers expect she will). By staying in the still divided Cabinet, the Tory MPs Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling and Liam Fox intend to play both ends of the parliamentary field. Supporting the Prime Minister’s deal with her European Union counterparts like loyal colleagues, while simultaneously championing the need for a substantial redraft with their erstwhile europhobic associates on the backbenches. The old rhetorical defence of, “I’m fighting the system from the inside, man”, springs to mind.

Meanwhile the hard-right Democratic Unionist Party is planning to revive the Blitz spirit in order to defeat the underhand conspiracy by the nefarious Continentals to enslave dear old Blighty. Except the planned restaging of the noble retreat from the French beaches of 1940 is looking more like a reenactment of the last days of the US Embassy in Saigon 1975. Even the late appearance of the rival Ulster Unionist Party in the bellicose anti-deal camp has done little to cover up the glaring fact that the DUP and its allies are increasingly uncertain of their anti-European support in the wider unionist community. It may be only a minority of pro-union voters who are willing or content to accept the proposed settlement between London and Brussels. But it only takes a minority to fatally split or crack the loyalist electoral bloc to the benefit of nationalist and other political parties. It’s not the committed ones who come out and vote that worries the Democratic Unionists – its the uncommitted ones who simply stay at home.

Finally, in light of the Brexiteer objections to the UK-EU proposed agreement, here is the British Leave campaigner Peter J North strongly rejecting any suggestion that notions of racialist resentment and post-imperial ennui are energising the Brexit campaign in Britain. Or more specifically, in Greater England:

A foul-natured piece by Fintan O’Toole appears today in the Guardian. A typically cliche ridden delve into the British psyche. To the self-loathing Guardianista this probably passes as insight but it’s actually just a long sneer at the British.

It basically boils down to the wearisome stereotype that leavers are Colonel Blimp types mourning the loss of empire and yadda yadda yadda.

I do not discount that Britain’s psyche is very much influenced by its military accomplishments. We do take some small pride in our role in World War Two and yes we do see the Falklands War as part of that long tradition. We have a sense of destiny.

Certainly the British have a lot more to be proud of than a wire-haired mick penning quasi-racist poison for the Guardian.

Yep, imagine a “wire-haired Mick” believing that Brexit supporters represent a basket of right-wing, chauvinist and militarist deplorables? Shocking, I tells ya, simply shocking.

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15 comments on “Theresa May’s Brexit Draft Deal: The Reality Of Post-Brexit Relations In Europe

  1. What you describe looks very much in line with Mihir Bose’s contentions about the psychology of British people:

    http://www.mihirbose.com/index.php/two-faced-britain-my-50-years-in-the-land-of-lions-and-lambs/

    It probably won’t look anything like the either French beaches of 1940 nor Saigon 1975. Both of those things were relatively fast you see. Bose’s model about the British says that this is likely to be a long drawn out affair.

    But it seems like Europe doesn’t want the UK to have too sweet a deal with Brexit, as they fear other nations will follow suit.

  2. Yes, as predicted, the rulers behind the scenes were never serious about leaving the EU. What we have here is a sleight of hand to fool,trick and hoodwink the Brit public. The last two years have been a charade to get to this point.

  3. ” a basket of right-wing, chauvinist and militarist deplorables”…as epitomised by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.

  4. Pete North blogs weird crap about Brexit and then talks about making Airfix tanks? back in the real world
    Arlene Foster ‘annoyed’ at business leaders support for May’s Brexit deal

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/arlene-foster-annoyed-at-business-leaders-support-for-mays-brexit-deal-37538904.html

  5. “We have a sense of destiny.”

    That and the anti-Irish chauvinism. Seen that sort of mixture in the past. It’s not pretty.

    • It was always there the Anti Ireland stuff, but it was then transferred to the Scots, the English DNA exceptionalism is strong, they cannot believe they are beaten on Brexit, they are sore losers,
      “Insults are the arguments employed by those who are in the wrong.” – Jean-Jacques Rousseau

    • It’s clearly the case that nations can reinvent their own sense of destiny-if they want to badly enough.

  6. Jams O'Donnell

    North is a self-important right winger, who is now unable to stand any contradiction. The adulation he has received from the fans of his blog has gone to his head.

    This latest piece of blimpery from him is by now typical.

  7. I now have a vision of Arlene taking ship and sailing off into exile, like a latter day Ó Néill (if the helicopters don’t whisk her off first).

    • Graham Ennis

      She will be lucky to make it to the Helicopter if things go as predicted. LOL

    • Well, she certainly seems determined not to accept reunification when it comes. I wonder if she would meekly sail off into exile? Or would she try to make a Carsonia Mark II in counties Antrim and Down, with fingers jutting out to neighbouring unionist strongholds or enclaves?

      My strong suspicion is that most unionist leaders will never accept a unity vote. Instead they will demand some sort of rerun referendum with a super-majority clause, or a series of referendums on reunification questions, or a series of forever conferences to debate and delay unity, or outright repartition.

  8. Pat murphy

    Wire haired Mick, St.Fintan won’t like that title. At least he may begin to realise what is actually thought of him. Nothing more than he deserves. West Brit prick.

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