Could Donald Trump Defy The Polls And Do An Electoral Brexit?

Michael Moore, the left-wing American documentary-maker, has been saying it since last year, though it’s only in recent months that people have started to take notice. In his view the new Republican Party candidate, Donald J. Trump, has a strong chance of winning the 2016 presidential election in the United States. The commentators and statisticians predicting a certain and unassailable victory for Hilary Clinton and the Democratic Party are simply getting it wrong.

“I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly – “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real.”

However, even those in the heart of the bubble are beginning to recognise which way the electoral winds are blowing. Controversial psephologist, Nate Silver, writing on his analytical website, FiveThirtyEight:

“The first few polls conducted after last week’s Republican convention suggested a small to medium convention bounce for Donald Trump, with Hillary Clinton holding on to narrow leads in several surveys. But a series of polls released Monday morning show bigger gains for Trump. In particular, Trump leads by 1 percentage point in a CBS News poll, by 5 percentage points in a CNN poll, and by 4 points in this week’s edition of the Morning Consult poll.1 He’s also extended his lead for 4 points in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, although it has generally shown good results for Trump.

It isn’t straightforward to measure Trump’s convention bounce because he was already gaining ground on Clinton heading into the conventions, narrowing what had been a 6- to 7-point national lead for Clinton in June into roughly a 3-point lead instead. For instance, the CNN poll shows a massive 10-percentage-point swing toward Trump, but its previous poll was taken in mid-June, at a high-water mark for Clinton. By contrast, CBS News shows Trump gaining only 1 percentage point, but its previous poll was conducted earlier this month, shortly after the controversy over Clinton’s email scandal resurfaced.

But one method to measure the convention bounce is to look at FiveThirtyEight’s now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election held today. We don’t usually spend a lot of time writing about the now-cast because — uhh, breaking news — the election is scheduled for Nov. 8. The now-cast is super aggressive, and can overreact to small swings in the polls. But it’s useful if we want to get a snapshot of what the election looks like right now. It suggests that in an election held today, Trump would be a narrow favorite, with a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.”

Yes, that’s right, a possible victory for Kaiser Drumpf in November. Prepare the panic rooms!

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13 comments

  1. I’m so scared about this. Really and actually. I initially “liked” this post but…well…I should probably be looking for real estate in Ireland instead!

    1. Personally I think the US will survive a Trump presidency. It won’t be pleasant, and may have a certain buffoonish McCartyite aspect to it, but the institutions of the republic are too strong. It could even lead to a more vigorous move to the Left.

  2. Canada is way closer though.My son the Nevadan tells me he meets young women who support Trump. If Hillary can’t beat this sexist in the women’s vote….

  3. Nate made his bones in the 08 primary accurately predicting Obama’s win. He hasn’t been so great since and was pretty terrible this cycle in the primaries, he just followed the crappy polls and never pointed out their LV models were wrong. So hefty pinch of salt with any further prognostications until he’s demonstrated he’s got his 08 groove back. Which he hasn’t.

    However, HRC’s Sista Souljah moments picking Time Caine and the golden parachute for DWS were really stupid. The progressives this cycle know precisely what that means. We know what Clinton did in 92 and how he stuck it to the Dem base with NAFTA, Welfare “Reform” and ending the New Deal. The lesson learned was “Yes, actually we do have somewhere else to go with our votes.”

    Now Trump is probably the only candidate out there that could actually make the Lesser of Two Evils work with a Clinton candidacy, but then again HRC is the only candidate that could actually lose to Trump.

    But Diebold is in HRC’s pocket and as she’s going to deliver for the oligarchy they’ll likely steal the election for her, as it’s become quite clear they did in the CA primary.

    1. I thought HRC would go for a more obvious “progressive” Veep selection. Not Warren, she’d overshadow her, but a slightly lesser figure who could still appeal to the Bernie supporters. Instead she went down the straight middle of the road. A very uninspiring pick. Not sure what he brings to the ticket, aside from swing state voters (maybe).

      1. Rumours are Wall Street vetoed Warren last year. Stiglitz was on Democracy Now today making the point that several of the “progressives” on the short list were senators in red states. Probably have to wait for the campaign books next year to get the skinny.

        i see it as serving two primary goals:
        * wooing what’s left of moderate Republicans and the conservative independents
        * a very explicit Sister Souljah to the progressives and an attempt to use Trump to break the progresive movement

        In gallows humour land the Kaine/Pence picks really are assassination insurance, I mean, what’s the point of taking out the #1 when the #2 is basically the same, just dumber?

  4. Absolutely terrified at the reality of this. I’ve always wanted to move to Ireland, but have been really actively looking at how to make that happen this year. That oompaloompa is horrifying, but not as horrifying as the fact that he has a lot of people ready to vote for him

    1. True, though how much real damage can he do? It seems to me that the deep democratic traditions in the US, the institutions of the federal government itself, will insulate the country as a whole from the worse of his excesses. He would be only able to go so far in the executive role before butting up against the constitution, congress, the supreme court, etc. They will bind his hands in a lot of circumstances. As for overseas, beyond turning the sands of Syria into glass (which the Pentagon and State Dept. establishments would probably fight him on), he’s shown no real interest in anything expect anti-ISIS rhetoric and bluster. I’m guessing but I suspect Trump in the White House will be more Berlusconi than Hitler. Or Putin. He’s just too clownish to be anything else. I hope!

      1. Respectfully, it is the thought that he can’t do any real damage that is the most frightening of all. Many Americans feel the same way and they’ll vote for him – just because they don’t like Hillary and think that he won’t be able to do that much. However, at least 2 (if not 3) Supreme Court justices will be vacating their appointments and if his administration gets to appoint their replacements, there is a very real possibility of Roe V Wade, Gay Marriage, Anti-Discrimination laws, Birth Control and Obamacare will be history…from the get go. Who knows what else they’ll change.
        He has chosen a very quietly terrifying running mate that many know nothing about so that isn’t as big of an issue as it should be yet, but just a little research shows how damaging he could be to women and progressives too. Trump has also sworn to crack down on dissent and protest by continuing to give military weapons to the police and by removing the mandate that they wear cameras. He is researching whether or not he can make it illegal to film them too.
        He believes in ‘Enhanced’ (torture) Interrogation and just said that the Geneva Convention is out of date and useless. He would break that code of conduct in a second and will have the power to do so as commander in chief of the military.
        All that said, his rhetoric has already done more damage than anyone in 40 years when it comes to foreign policy, civil rights, equality, and immigration. He has a Republican Senate and a Republican House who will not bind his hands in most things that he blusters on about. If he has a Conservative Supreme court as well, we are totally screwed.
        He may be a clown but he’s the most dangerous one since Pennywise.

      2. How much real damage did George Bush do?
        He started 2 wars the Middle East that are still ongoing. Instead of working with countries in places like Eastern Europe that can realistically be improved he chose to waste thousands of American lives in shitholes like Afghanistan and Iraq.

        So don’t underestimate the potential and ability of US’ presidents to do stupid and dangerous things.

  5. I was hoping in vain Sanders would win. Knew the system was rigged against him.
    Honestly,Hillary scares me more than Trump. Trump at least had reservations about Iraq and Libya. Hillary supported every stupid war of the past 15 yrs. She cravenly voted for Iraq and cackled at Gaddhafy being sodomised with a bayonet and lynched. Hillary is no more a friend of the working class than Trump. She is an out of touch multi multi millionaire who will be just as heartless and war mongering as Thatcher. She believes she is entitled to the presidency. Her coronation is this awaits.

    1. Yes, the coronation thing and Clinton’s obvious belief that she is ENTITLED to the presidency is in some ways quite worrying. Trump will be a clown-president. Clinton might be a warrior one.

    2. I was a Sanders fan too, and got to hear him speak a couple of times during the campaign. He was brilliant. You’re correct about Hillary on all counts too. I fear her – and posted a picture of her and Thatcher superimposed over each other a long time ago. Her entitlement rubs me wrong and is one of the major hiccups of her campaign – but she still will get my vote, grudgingly. For me it’s about my goddaughter and what a Trump appointed Supreme Court would do to her rights

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