Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Given the events of the last fortnight, that Shakespearean quip is as good a summation of the general election in the United Kingdom as any other. There is lots of noise, lots of controversy, but will the Brexit-focused contest bring substantial change to the political landscape of the UK? The polls are indicating that the current Conservative Party government under Boris Johnson will probably be re-elected, though this time with a workable if not spectacular majority in the House of Commons. Enough at least to allow him to cast aside any need for a backdoor coalition deal with the Democratic Unionist Party in another break with the precedents set by his incompetent predecessor, Theresa May. The assumption by some observers that the Brexit Party would attract enough disaffected Tory-supporting Leave voters to stymie BoJo’s chances of staying in office, under his own steam anyway, seems to have faded away as Nigel Farage’s lobby group falls into confused infighting between soft and hard Brexiteers, the latest iteration of the proposed Withdrawal Agreement between the European Union and the UK undermining some of the BP’s supposed rationale for standing in the election.
This of course also impacts the opposition Labour Party which was hoping to see a split vote among its primary opponents in a number of marginal constituencies, allowing its candidates to sneak through under the dubiously democratic first-pass-the-post system (FPTP), giving Jeremy Corbyn the keys to Number 10. Instead, not only is it faced by a slightly reinvigorated Conservative Party, weaponised with a coherent plan for Britain to exit the EU, but its own support is under threat from the Lib Dems, the Green Party, Plaid Cymru and to a lesser extent, the Faragists. Or at least, what’s left of the nouveau UKIP in a handful of Brexit-favouring constituencies around provincial England and Wales. Meanwhile, north of the border, there is a dearth of hard stats from Scotland due to a lack of comprehensive polling (or any type of polling that goes beyond merely treating the Scots as a statistically meaningless sub-set of the English and Welsh samples). However, despite a very modest Tory revival, the SNP seems likely to not only hold its Westminster seats but to increase them, if the vagaries of FPTP fall their way. And probably at the expense of Labour.
So, the outcome of the British general election 2019? As things stand now, another Conservative administration, though with a better parliamentary majority than the last one, faced by a fractured opposition led by the Labour Party. And no Brexit Party MPs in sight.
This is a wonderful summation, ASF. I’ve meant to say before but feared it might sound patronising, so please take this in the spirit intended – you can write, which is an increasingly uncommon talent nowadays.
Thanks for that. Much appreciated. Unfortunately all of my writing takes place during the brief few moments of free time between work and studying so I don’t get much space to craft it. Hopefully I’ll be able to get back to more leisurely times when I get through the next year of studies and exams.
To be honest, and I really do feel sorry for the English people (the poor of course) that they will have to face another Tory abattoir of their state, but I’m afraid that Corbyn was not ruthless with the blairites when he should have been, and he betrayed Chris Williamson, or rather, acquiesced to his betrayal. I can see why much of his base has lost the genuine enthusiasm that there was. The msm are also guilty as sin for the immense suffering which is coming.
He’s starting to look like a gatekeeper; a bit like Bernie sanders.
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Corbyn is a gift to the Tories. And to the Lib-Dems. And to the SNP.
I’d hold off on that prediction until the week before the election. The tides are running against the Tories and there are several scandals in the pipe that will blow up between now and then – the Arcuri interview for example. Recall Labour’s trajectory during the campaign of GE 2017?
It’s not done and dusted yet.
On NI though I think it could get very interesting and playing with predictions there’s a chance, in a perfect storm, of 8 DUP, 7 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 APNI. Will have to see LucidTalks’ constituency polls the week before election to see how likely that scenario is.
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Corbyn 1970’s old-style Labour Party appears to have collapsed since 2017, he was always a critic of the EEC/ EU, the Brits in the main seem keen to jump into the economic wilderness under the guise that the Empire will somehow return. Not sure that the Tories will win a big majority, as the SNP will pick up a lot of their seats in Scotland.
In 2015 the SNP secured 56 out of 59 of the Scottish seats with 50% of the vote.
In 2017 the SNP secured 35 out of 59 seats with around 36.9% of the vote.
Two years on it is anticipated that the SNP vote and share of seats will match or exceed 2015
Moreover polling data suggests that Scotland if asked to vote on the EU would return a significantly higher Remain vote than the 62% delivered in 2016.
Brings into sharp focus the futility of voting in Scotland with its democratic mandate disregarded.
A bit like the old gerrymandered statelet of NI before the Troubles.
Against this background
I hope that the SNP will landslide it again but the Tories seem to be seeing a modest uptick in the admittedly flawed Scottish sampling. Mostly at the expense of the Brexit Party-UKIP camp – and Labour.
The DUP’s paramilitary friends obviously don’t realise how counter-productive their scurrilous poster/banner campaigns could prove to be.
From the Indo about yer woman in the Wexford by-election:
To what extent Fine Gael vetted Ms Murphy is unclear. “I’m sure there was vetting,” a source said. “But stupidity is often hard to detect in its early phases.”
One of the best lines I’ve read in a long time. 🙂
I haven’t read the Labour Party’s manifesto, but going by media reports it sounds radical to say the least. Whether what the manifesto promises would or could be delivered is open to debate, but it certainly sets Labour miles apart from the other parties which, to my mind at least, is to be applauded. And this is from someone who has absolutely no time for Jeremy Corbyn.