I’d treat this with caution until we get the details but a poll commissioned by Sinn Féin through the well-known UK-based company Survation places Mary Lou McDonald’s party three percentage points ahead of its nearest rival, Fianna Fáil, while Fine Gael trails an incredible eight points behind in third place.
- Sinn Féin 25%
- Fianna Fáil 22%
- Fine Gael 17%
- Green Party 9%
- Labour Party 6%
- Solidarity-PBP 5%
- Social Democrats 3%
- Independent Alliance 1%
- Independents 10%
- Others 2%
The poll was conducted up to the 2nd of February with a sample size of 1,074 voters and a margin of error of 3%. Which was before this week’s fairly hysterical media onslaught against SF north and south as the press seeks to scare up support for the Establishment parties of FF and FG. A well rehearsed tactic that will likely work to some extent come polling day on Saturday. As a side note, Survation was the British polling firm that predicted the outcome of the general election in Britain with a high degree of accuracy, though they are relatively new and untested in the Irish market.
This and McWilliams podcast, beg the question, who is going to transfer TO FF and FG? If the country is recoiling from them, how high are they likely to be in the preference order? Are they at risk of not even getting a preference? Will be see a scenario with 42 SF TDs and many constituencies where FF and FG are fighting for the last seat?
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